Ahead of his webinar next week (register here), Robert Swift takes a brief look at the state of the world and what it means for the investors out there.
This week we continue with the thematic of mobility and look at another adjacent category, semiconductors. In particular where we see the market going and why it remains an important aspect to look at especially when one thinks off the EV market. For the more technically apt, please forgive if the following seems a tad layman-like, given that this author's particular forte is economics.
At the beginning of this year, I had made five rather bold predictions and this week we thought it timely to revisit them. With hindsight, some of them were downright comical and some right but for perhaps the wrong reasons. Whatever maybe the case, the one thing that as investors we should always seek to do is to constantly assess and reassess our assumptions as facts change.
Over the past few weeks we have tried to elaborate upon what is turning out to be one of the most interesting and dynamic secular growth stories of the coming decades and perhaps century. And so, we would like to use this article as a conclusion of sorts, namely addressing the why? And more importantly, why now?
This week we visit our second category within the mobility thematic, that is autonomy. A topic that is arguably more important than the general electrification of transport, we arrive at three key considerations for those wishing to take advantage of the thematic.
This week we visit the first of the categories within mobility, that is the most obvious, the electrification of transport and automobiles. There are several key catalysts for this process including the continued adoption of regulatory frameworks by governments across the planet towards sustainable development and tackling climate change.
This week we begin an exploration of one of the most prescient topics in the world of investing and economics, that is the future of mobility. We’re all familiar with the recent success of Tesla which has baffled many of the more conservative investors and has come to be a painful trade for the shorters over the last few years. Closer to home, we’ve seen some interesting aspects of this in less familiar names like Novanix (NVX.ASX) and adjacent categories such as Connexion Telematics (CXZ.ASX). We begin what is going to be a series of articles with an overview of sorts.
Karl Hunt, of the Global High Conviction portfolio and Delft Partners, delves into what is shaping up to be one of the stronger global investing thematics. Infrastructure spending was needed prior to the ongoing pandemic and it is now likely to accelerate as governments around the world look to drive economic activity.
We begin this week with the latest update in the throwing of the kitchen sink story which we first elaborated upon, what seems like years ago, in March. Back then we posited that the Federal Reserve would become the lender of last resort for the corporate sector and dispense with all sense of normality. And so here we are, the Federal Reserve has, as of last night (15 June), made a commitment to buy corporate bonds on an individual basis (as opposed to the high-yield ETF that was bought through a special purpose vehicle). This latest action should make for some interesting watching when Powell goes up in front of Congress on June 16th and 17th where he will surely be asked the question of whether the Fed is in the process of nationalising corporate debt. At this point, we ask the question: is it such a stretch to imagine that once you can put credit risk on the balance sheet of a central bank it's not too far to equities risk, is it?
This week we visit perhaps one of the most prominent thematics in the market, that is the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) space. In particular and given the outsized returns of the market darlings, including APT, we would like to ask ourselves the question, where to next? Is the optimism warranted? Or is it perhaps the outcome of a rather irrational market?
We seem to be saying it all the time but what a way to start the week, from the potential for a vaccine by Moderna which prompted a solid rally across risk assets to some rather optimistic rhetoric coming from the rainmaker-in-chief, the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell. We’ve also seen stimulus across both the fiscal and monetary side of the equations to a tune that is, to us at least, rather unprecedented in recent history. So where does this leave us? Is it time to be buying equities in the hopes of a v-shaped or w-shaped or u-shaped or any-other-shaped recovery that the pundits are calling or are we better off waiting?
This week we would like to put forward our thoughts on the impact of bush fires specifically from an economic and investment perspective. While we understand that any topic of this kind might be open for criticism given the equating of human lives in monetary terms, we are by no means being callous about the devastation that the past few months have reaped upon the lives of thousands across regional Australia. It is a tragedy. But as with any major event like this, there will be winners and losers, especially on the stock market.
Heading into reporting season we take a look at a few simple things to keep in mind if one truly wishes to capitalise on the increased news flow that comes with reporting season.
To wind up the year we decided to take a tongue-in-cheek look at the year that was. There were a number of predictions being widely thrown around by those in the industry to start the year, unfortunately many of them turned out to be unfounded. So, let's dive into 2019 in review!
This week we would like to visit perhaps one of the most controversial topics in the investment world. That is the case for investing in Asia, specifically why? And why now? The experiences of many investors in the past, especially retail investors, have simply not been the best. So why is it now the place to be?
Last week we wrote about asset allocation for the coming year (2020) on a holistic basis. This week we would like to build on that topic and examine the context that surrounds equities headed into the new decade.
This week we try to grapple with perhaps one of the most confusing topics in modern financial history, that is the phenomena of negative interest rates. It is perhaps one of the biggest side-effects of modern monetary policy and quantitative easing. To take a Greek analogy, it is the ultimate Pandora’s Box.
Last week in our article looking at the potential for an escalation in fiscal deficits we made a few calls, first that the S&P 500 would inch higher following more QE from the Federal Reserve and news flow out of China negotiations. This week we would like to follow this up with what we feel are some rather interesting developments in the seemingly bubble-like universe of central banks and their viewpoints. As well as some interesting stories around why we feel like there will be a reversion to the mean in terms of value versus the market all together through next year.
Kevin Smith, of Delft Partners and portfolio manager of the TAMIM Asia Small Companies Fund, takes a look at the curious case of Japan. What is happening there that should mean it is a safe haven amongst all the global turmoil?
Last month we saw some more wizardry by central banks, this time in REPO markets. This has prompted us to consider two things, first, how many people actually know what the REPO market is? Secondly, does this mean we are heading for some more good ol' fashioned QE?
This week we revisit a favourite topic of ours, further exploring our framework for understanding innovation. This time we focus on the role that necessity plays in creating true paradigm shifts as opposed to the incremental development we often see masquerading as innovation. The answer? Patient capital...
First things first, apologies to Dire Straits for the title. This week we would like to examine the implausibility of a genuine currency war for a number of reasons, looking into global financial systems and the way currency (NOT cash) is actually created.
This week we return to the topic of innovation. Just what is it that allows innovations to take place? And more particularly where should we be placing our bets to take advantage?
Part 3 - Understanding a Trade War Between Australia's Biggest Investor and Australia's Biggest Trade Partner
This is the third in a series of articles that will ultimately look to explore the potential impact, both short and long term, of a trade spat between Australia’s largest investor and Australia’s largest trade partner. This installment looks at the two key individuals in this conflict; Xi and Trump are important to understand in order to truly examine the impact of a trade war on Australia and the broader global economy.
Markets & Commentary
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TAMIM Asset Management provides general information to help you understand our investment approach. Any financial information we provide is not advice, has not considered your personal circumstances and may not be suitable for you.