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This week we look into the efficacy of the RBA raising interest rates to combat inflation and the subsequent impact on Australian property prices.
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This week we would like to offer our thoughts on certain megathemes that are impacting investment markets. Firstly, credit where it is due, this is a topic inspired by an oped in the AFR by James Thomson who summarises what he sees the recent bid by Cannon-Brookes for AGL represents. He categorizes the bid as representing three broad megathemes: 1) Energy Transition; 2) Private Capital; and 3) The Billionaire Activist. While we broadly agree with this categorisation, we would like to give our take on them and add in a final component that we feel is missing: the politicisation of everything. We have arrived at our final article of 2021 and, as usual, we thought it would be interesting to revisit our predictions for the past year and come up with a few more heading into 2022. Speaking to prospective and actual clients everyday, we get a fair sense and understanding as to the pulse of the market. Throughout those conversations, there are often common themes and questions. Among these, first, should we continue to own equities? Second question, where to allocate in a world of continued low interest rates? Thirdly, we keep hearing about inflation, but what does this actually mean? Robert Swift takes a look at the current situation around inflation and looks at how we can invest to maintain our spending power in real terms. A must read for those now receiving next to nothing for their bonds and fixed income.
This week we would like to revisit the topic of asset prices. More specifically, in reference to the latest RBA meetings and the IMF World Economic Outlook. A topic that is particularly important to us in perhaps elucidating whether we are in the beginning of (another?) bull market or in the final stretches of irrational exuberance. Most importantly, what does this mean for your investing going forward?
Last week Sid Ruttala provided us with a list of things not to worry about, this week he goes the other way and takes a look at a couple of things to keep a eye on given the current market environment.
Robert Swift takes a look at what happened in February in markets and touches on some of the adjustments made within his portfolio. This is an excerpt from Robert's Global High Conviction report for February 2021.
Here we are, February of 2021 and it has been an interesting start to the year. For those of you that have read previous articles, you know I have been one of those outliers that has been predicting inflation and the tremendous risks posed by the bond market for a good 18-months. So, in keeping with that theme, I shall try and grapple with the interesting trading action so far. It started with a sell-off in treasuries, followed promptly by a sell-off in equities and precious metals with inflation jitters coming back into the equation.
This week, in our final article of the year, we make some predictions going into 2021. Hopefully I end up with a better score than the 3.5/5 for 2020. I wouldn’t bet on it, but again this is the investor in me looking at my surroundings and trying to come up with probabilities. So without much ado (not about nothing), here are five more.
Sid Ruttala fleshes out a number of the points that Robert Swift has been talking about in his weekly Ausbiz appearances. Heading into the pointy end of the US presidential election, there is always heightened uncertainty in investment markets and (as much as we might want to given 2020 so far) this is not the time to bury one’s head in the sand and hope for the best.
This week we revisit a topic we first spoke of when the great Trump Trade War was very much in its infancy. That is the future of global trade and industry and, more importantly, what this means for Australia. The recent moves made by regulators in the US (including blocking off of Tencent and forced sale of TikTok) have brought many of our broader predictions, perhaps unfortunately, to a reality.
This morning the potential for the imposition of import duties on Australian wine by China has made it incumbent upon our government to formulate nuanced policy in an increasingly hostile and uncertain world. What does this mean for Australian investments? What is our world likely to look like over the next decade? These are the fundamental questions we seek to answer this week. By no means do I follow the Eugene Fama line of thought and insist that markets are fully efficient nor consistently rational. However, just maybe, the current situation isn’t as irrational as one might imagine judging by the headlines, some of which include the S&P hitting all-time highs, the ASX not factoring in the full impact of the economic lockdown, recovering close to 35% from its lows, and all this despite quite possibly the worst growth numbers since The Great Depression.
This week we continue to explore the global financial system as it currently stands and how we have come to this position. In particular, I shall focus on the USD as the reserve currency, the Eurodollar market and how money is actually created. The goal being that by the end of this part of the series, the readership will be able to understand how the rise or fall in the USD can end up impacting credit growth in seemingly far flung or unrelated economies like China and Australia. Why, when the latest round of monetary stimulus was put in place, the Fed included dollar swap lines to central banks around the world, including Australia, to keep the system on stable footing.
This week we visit perhaps one of the more contentious topics within the context of modern day investing. That is the role of price discovery and fundamentals in today's investing world. Talking to both existing and potential clients on a daily basis, I constantly hear people coming up with doomsday scenarios and/or rules of thumb that don’t seem to work. It is rather frustrating.
Risk assets continue the long march upward with equities higher and yield spreads lower. Is it really a dead cat bounce as some fund managers (in cash) are saying?
In the wake of governments around the world taking on a considerable amount of debt to deal with the ramifications of the ongoing pandemic, Robert Swift breaks down the current situation and looks at a couple of the likely outcomes.
Some equity managers, who presumably sold heavily in March and April, are still calling this a ‘dead cat bounce’. It is unusual for the cat to bounce higher dead than where it was when alive. Yet this is now where we find ourselves. And so we must ask, is the future becoming clearer?
What do premium art, technology stocks and agricultural assets have in common? This might sound like a rather ridiculous notion to explore but bear with us for a little and it will hopefully make a little more sense.
We seem to be saying it all the time but what a way to start the week, from the potential for a vaccine by Moderna which prompted a solid rally across risk assets to some rather optimistic rhetoric coming from the rainmaker-in-chief, the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell. We’ve also seen stimulus across both the fiscal and monetary side of the equations to a tune that is, to us at least, rather unprecedented in recent history. So where does this leave us? Is it time to be buying equities in the hopes of a v-shaped or w-shaped or u-shaped or any-other-shaped recovery that the pundits are calling or are we better off waiting?
This week was rather eventful in the domestic space, both from an economic and policy perspective. And so we thought it might be worthwhile to firstly give credit where it's due and second understand the key lessons and takeaways through this crisis both from an investment and normative perspective.
The year 2020 is now certain to be remembered as the year China “sneezed” and the rest of the world “caught a virus”. It is official, the coronavirus (Covid-19) is now a global pandemic. So, this week we take a look at what we know about the virus and why we think investors should capitalise on the current volatility, looking to continue buying good quality companies over the next few weeks and months.
Robert Swift takes some time out to provide his thoughts on the developments of the past week. Between the coronavirus situation and the Russia Saudi oil showdown, there is a lot to unpack.
This week we would like to put forward our thoughts on the impact of bush fires specifically from an economic and investment perspective. While we understand that any topic of this kind might be open for criticism given the equating of human lives in monetary terms, we are by no means being callous about the devastation that the past few months have reaped upon the lives of thousands across regional Australia. It is a tragedy. But as with any major event like this, there will be winners and losers, especially on the stock market.
For the first newsletter of 2020 we put forward five key predictions for the calendar year ahead. Each of these will definitely impact the investing world and will have an effect on the Australian economy either directly or indirectly. It is always worth considering what lies ahead.
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