This week we visit a topic that has been prominent in the headlines and one that has already got the new government on the backfoot. That is, the almost exorbitant rise in the price of utilities for the Australian consumer. More importantly for the investor, this has implications on inflation data (and monetary policy imperatives as a result).
1 Comment
This week we would like to look at the commodities market. This is a fascinating topic in a world coming out of a global pandemic, in the midst of a “Green Transition” and tackling exacerbated income inequalities. Toss into this mix the context of Russian sanctions. These sanctions matter and will have outsized impacts given that the country has a GDP about half that of the UK.
This week we continue with our examination of the news flow that has been rocking markets. We find it interesting that the headlines have inextricably linked the latest burst in inflation and energy prices squarely with the Russia-Ukraine escalation story. However, for those of you that have been long-term readers, you may remember that we had previously made the call for triple digit oil prices even before the Putin-made fiasco. The latest round of sanctions may have only sped up the process. Similarly, we made the call that higher inflation numbers were likely to be printed due to the fiscal impetus and the nature of the responses to Covid-19. Alongside this, we posited that central banks may find it more difficult to normalise policy than the markets may be expecting.
This week we would like to offer our thoughts on certain megathemes that are impacting investment markets. Firstly, credit where it is due, this is a topic inspired by an oped in the AFR by James Thomson who summarises what he sees the recent bid by Cannon-Brookes for AGL represents. He categorizes the bid as representing three broad megathemes: 1) Energy Transition; 2) Private Capital; and 3) The Billionaire Activist. While we broadly agree with this categorisation, we would like to give our take on them and add in a final component that we feel is missing: the politicisation of everything.
We begin the New Year with some interesting times in the market (has it ever been different?). Inflation Stateside is running at the highest pace in nearly four decades (i.e. 1981), the markets are expecting a tightening by major central banks, the PBOC being the outlier in going the other way in being increasingly accommodative, and Omicron continuing to gain traction. These are just a few of the headlines grabbing investors’ attention. So, with that in mind, let us go back to a basic question to begin the year, where to next? And more importantly where do we allocate? This week we seek to look at two elephants in the room, in answering these questions: monetary policy and geopolitics (which may very well present the next leftfield event).
Last week we looked at energy markets and made the case that the recent price action was a result of broader policy failures in speeding up the transition towards a net-zero world. This week we look at the green energy market to understand the incentives, opportunities and outcomes going forward. The irony may be that our bullish case for medium term oil prices may in fact perversely create a tailwind for the broader sector, despite what this may imply for growth prospects and inflation.
This week we take a dive into energy markets, in particular the likely medium to long term outlook for the sector. We have previously written on the potential dislocations both in uranium spot prices (which we wrote off last year) and the potential upward trajectory in oil prices. The former has seemingly played out (though it may still be very much in its infancy) and the second seems to be playing out in real time with Brent futures trading at US$85.45 per barrel and WTI at US$83.73 per barrel. Many would also be aware of the sheer scale of disruptions in the UK and broader shortages of LNG in the Eurozone heading into winter. Even more recently, the headlines have been taken over by blackouts in China in the face of increased demand.
|
Markets & CommentaryAt TAMIM we are committed to educating investors on how best to manage their retirement futures. Sign up to receive our weekly newsletter:
TAMIM Asset Management provides general information to help you understand our investment approach. Any financial information we provide is not advice, has not considered your personal circumstances and may not be suitable for you.
Archives
March 2024
Categories
All
|