This week (and over the coming few weeks) I would like to visit upon a passion of mine, that is the understanding of investment and capital markets within the broader context of history and the political economy. Firstly, I must admit the inspiration for this particular piece came from perhaps one of my all-time favourite intellectuals and money managers, though I consider the latter aspect of his life to be quite secondary to the former. Ray Dalio’s most recent study into the big cycles of the past 500 years was not only stimulating but puts a great amount of context to the world we live in, or at the very least makes the investment framework rather more nuanced.
This week we visit perhaps one of the more contentious topics within the context of modern day investing. That is the role of price discovery and fundamentals in today's investing world. Talking to both existing and potential clients on a daily basis, I constantly hear people coming up with doomsday scenarios and/or rules of thumb that don’t seem to work. It is rather frustrating.
Risk assets continue the long march upward with equities higher and yield spreads lower. Is it really a dead cat bounce as some fund managers (in cash) are saying?
The recent election in Singapore provided a gentle reminder to the ruling People’s Action Party that their hold on power should not be taken for granted. Singapore has generated significant financial wealth to deal with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and plans are underway that will underpin the short-term economic recovery as well as Singapore’s long-term reputation for competitiveness and innovation. The local equity market remains small and has not reflected the broad economic success of the country, nevertheless, we are able to find excellent small to mid-sized companies in Singapore to include in our Asian portfolio.
This week we revisit the most over-researched and perhaps over-discussed sector in this nation, namely the financial sector. More specifically I would like to touch upon the short-to-medium term outcomes of recent policy decisions.
Sid Ruttala delves deeper (pardon the mining wordplay) into Australia's largest export, iron ore. Looking at the future of both the supply and demand side and what this means for mining stocks in Australian's portfolios going forward. Is there a substitute for the banks in there?
Karl Hunt, of the Global High Conviction portfolio and Delft Partners, delves into what is shaping up to be one of the stronger global investing thematics. Infrastructure spending was needed prior to the ongoing pandemic and it is now likely to accelerate as governments around the world look to drive economic activity.
Markets & Commentary
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