We begin the New Year with some interesting times in the market (has it ever been different?). Inflation Stateside is running at the highest pace in nearly four decades (i.e. 1981), the markets are expecting a tightening by major central banks, the PBOC being the outlier in going the other way in being increasingly accommodative, and Omicron continuing to gain traction. These are just a few of the headlines grabbing investors’ attention. So, with that in mind, let us go back to a basic question to begin the year, where to next? And more importantly where do we allocate? This week we seek to look at two elephants in the room, in answering these questions: monetary policy and geopolitics (which may very well present the next leftfield event).
0 Comments
Robert Swift takes a look at the current situation in China, examining government intervention and the moral issue of investing in China in particular.
This week we revisit a topic we first spoke of when the great Trump Trade War was very much in its infancy. That is the future of global trade and industry and, more importantly, what this means for Australia. The recent moves made by regulators in the US (including blocking off of Tencent and forced sale of TikTok) have brought many of our broader predictions, perhaps unfortunately, to a reality.
This morning the potential for the imposition of import duties on Australian wine by China has made it incumbent upon our government to formulate nuanced policy in an increasingly hostile and uncertain world. What does this mean for Australian investments? What is our world likely to look like over the next decade? These are the fundamental questions we seek to answer this week. With apologies to Canned Heat and Jack Kerouac, Robert Swift has penned some of his observations from being on the ground in Europe and Hong Kong recently and how these have influenced his thinking when it comes to investing. This week we finish up with Hong Kong.
We've been hearing more and more about it in the media, it's time to take a closer look. Huawei's meteoric rise globally is coming to a head as the US/China Trade Kerfuffle drags on and we thought it was time to take a closer look at what they are trying to do. Have we seen this type of empire building before? What does it mean for the average investor at the bottom of the world?
Kevin Smith, of Delft Partners and portfolio manager of the TAMIM Asia Small Companies Fund, looks to his own experience living and working in Hong Kong to place some context around the protests that are causing so much of a disturbance in global markets.
This is the fourth and final installment in a series of articles that look to explore the potential impact, both short and long term, of a trade spat between Australia’s largest investor and Australia’s largest trade partner. This installment looks at how the conflict might actually play out; perhaps more importantly, we touch upon what the impact will be on Australia.
This is the third in a series of articles that will ultimately look to explore the potential impact, both short and long term, of a trade spat between Australia’s largest investor and Australia’s largest trade partner. This installment looks at the two key individuals in this conflict; Xi and Trump are important to understand in order to truly examine the impact of a trade war on Australia and the broader global economy.
This is the second in a series of articles that will ultimately look to explore the potential impact, both short and long term, of a trade spat between Australia’s largest investor and Australia’s largest trade partner. This installment looks at the way growth is done in China; an important dynamic to understand in order to truly examine the impact of a trade war on Australia and the broader global economy.
This is the first in a series of articles that will ultimately look to explore the potential impact, both short and long term, of a trade spat between Australia’s largest investor and Australia’s largest trade partner. This installment looks at the way business is done in China; an important dynamic to understand in order to truly examine the impact of a trade war on Australia and the broader global economy.
This week we present a piece by Ben Goodwin, from Merlon Capital Partners who power the TAMIM Australian Equity Income IMA, examining the changing nature of the iron ore industry. The effect of Vale’s tragic dam collapse in early 2019 has seen iron ore prices rally. As a result of forced mine closures, the global seaborne supply of iron ore is expected to be 20mt lower in 2019 than in 2018, or 1.2% of the total seaborne market. Despite a slowing economy, Chinese steel demand in 2018 remained relatively strong, albeit importing ~10mt less iron ore relative to 2017 as use of scrap steel increased, a trend expected to continue for some time. This note summarises the implications of these factors and how they affect the longer-term market balance and pricing.
Kevin Smith, of Delft Partners and Portfolio Manager of the TAMIM Asia Small Companies fund, examines the misconceptions surrounding China. For such an important player in the world economy it is wildly misunderstood by the average westerner.
I have observed economic developments in China during the past three decades and found myself very frustrated with the ways in which China is often portrayed in the media. One of the best explanations of our fundamental misunderstanding of China is provided by former World Bank representative in China and Russia, Dr Yukon Huang in his book called “Cracking the China Conundrum Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong”. Robert Swift, of API Capital and the TAMIM Asia Small Companies strategy, tackles confirmation bias in an examination of the China-USA trade war situation.
Robert Swift, of API Capital and the TAMIM Asia Small Companies fund, takes the time to answer a few of the key questions around this newly launched strategy.
Kevin Smith, Lead Portfolio Manager for the exciting new Asia Small Companies strategy, takes a look at the Chinese bond market. He suggests that perhaps the media concern about rising defaults isn't cause for as much panic as they might suggest.
Robert Swift and the global equity team take a quick look at the USA China Trade War while also presenting the opinion of an associate of theirs, Stewart Paterson.
Kevin Smith, portfolio manager for the Asian Small Cap IMA reviews his 25 year history of investing into Chinese shares. Given the current interest in Chinese equities we thought the article was a timely primer to educate global investors on the history of the Chinese equity markets.
This week Robert Swift takes a look at the Chinese property market and the effect it will have on Australia and the World.
Karl Hunt, of the TAMIM Global High Conviction strategy, spent a month living in a district in Shenzhen, in an attempt to better understand what was happening in the world’s second-largest economy, and to gauge what the locals were doing. Here is his report.
|
Markets & CommentaryAt TAMIM we are committed to educating investors on how best to manage their retirement futures. Sign up to receive our weekly newsletter:
TAMIM Asset Management provides general information to help you understand our investment approach. Any financial information we provide is not advice, has not considered your personal circumstances and may not be suitable for you.
Archives
March 2024
Categories
All
|