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When investors think about an oil shock, the instinct is usually to look at the chart, watch Brent or WTI jump, and assume the story begins and ends there. Oil up, markets nervous, airlines down, energy stocks up, end of analysis. But that is rarely how the real world... By Sid Ruttala When oil spikes, investors tend to reach for the same old script. Energy prices go up, energy stocks follow, cash flows surge, dividends look safer, and suddenly what felt pedestrian last month starts to look positively strategic. That instinct is... By Ron Shamgar One of the enduring truths in small and mid cap investing is that the market does not always reward a good result. Sometimes it does the opposite. A company can deliver strong revenue growth, solid cash conversion, reaffirm guidance, expand into... There is a particular kind of market mistake that turns up again and again. A headline improves, the immediate fear recedes, oil gives back some of its panic move, equity futures bounce, and the collective temptation is to declare the danger over. We have just seen... For the past two years, markets have treated AI as a semiconductor story. And honestly, that made sense. Chips are tangible, exciting, and sit at the glamorous end of the value chain where margins are fat and every earnings beat feels like confirmation of a new... When oil prices spike, the market's first instinct is almost always the same. Buy energy producers. Sell airlines. Dust off the inflation playbook. Then pretend that understanding the direct effect is the same as understanding the whole story. It rarely is. The... Written by Rob Swift There is a peculiar habit in markets, one that repeats itself with almost comic reliability, where investors become so transfixed by what is loudly obvious that they entirely miss what is quietly important, and today feels very much like one of... A few weeks ago, in The Middle East Build-Up: What Investors Must Think About Now, we argued that investors did not need to predict war, they needed to prepare for its consequences. The core view was simple. If the US and Iran moved toward open conflict, oil would... By Ron Shamgar Markets have a curious habit of extrapolating the recent past far into the future. When a company experiences a difficult period, investors tend to assume that weakness will persist indefinitely. Yet history shows that some of the most compelling...
The Second Order Effects of Oil: Inflation, Freight, Fertiliser, and the Next Growth Scare
Woodside After the Spike: Is the Market Pricing a Windfall, or Just Renting One
Symal Group, When a Good Result Gets Sold, Opportunity Can Follow
Ceasefire, but not Closure: Why the Oil Shock May Fade from Headlines Before It Fades from Markets
AI Needs More Than Chips, It Needs Power: The Infrastructure Bottleneck Investors Are Missing
Beyond the Barrel: The Second-Order Winners and Losers From Higher Oil
From Exchanges to Engines: Three Quiet Compounders Rewiring the Global Economy
The Middle East Build-Up, Two Weeks Later: What Investors Must Think About Now
Reset, Rebuild, Re-Rate: Why EML’s Next Chapter Could Surprise the Market
When investors think about an oil shock, the instinct is usually to look at the chart, watch Brent or WTI jump, and assume the story begins and ends there. Oil up, markets nervous, airlines down, energy stocks up, end of analysis. But that is rarely how the real world... By Sid Ruttala When oil spikes, investors tend to reach for the same old script. Energy prices go up, energy stocks follow, cash flows surge, dividends look safer, and suddenly what felt pedestrian last month starts to look positively strategic. That instinct is... By Ron Shamgar One of the enduring truths in small and mid cap investing is that the market does not always reward a good result. Sometimes it does the opposite. A company can deliver strong revenue growth, solid cash conversion, reaffirm guidance, expand into... There is a particular kind of market mistake that turns up again and again. A headline improves, the immediate fear recedes, oil gives back some of its panic move, equity futures bounce, and the collective temptation is to declare the danger over. We have just seen... For the past two years, markets have treated AI as a semiconductor story. And honestly, that made sense. Chips are tangible, exciting, and sit at the glamorous end of the value chain where margins are fat and every earnings beat feels like confirmation of a new... When oil prices spike, the market's first instinct is almost always the same. Buy energy producers. Sell airlines. Dust off the inflation playbook. Then pretend that understanding the direct effect is the same as understanding the whole story. It rarely is. The... Written by Rob Swift There is a peculiar habit in markets, one that repeats itself with almost comic reliability, where investors become so transfixed by what is loudly obvious that they entirely miss what is quietly important, and today feels very much like one of... A few weeks ago, in The Middle East Build-Up: What Investors Must Think About Now, we argued that investors did not need to predict war, they needed to prepare for its consequences. The core view was simple. If the US and Iran moved toward open conflict, oil would... By Ron Shamgar Markets have a curious habit of extrapolating the recent past far into the future. When a company experiences a difficult period, investors tend to assume that weakness will persist indefinitely. Yet history shows that some of the most compelling...
The Second Order Effects of Oil: Inflation, Freight, Fertiliser, and the Next Growth Scare
Woodside After the Spike: Is the Market Pricing a Windfall, or Just Renting One
Symal Group, When a Good Result Gets Sold, Opportunity Can Follow
Ceasefire, but not Closure: Why the Oil Shock May Fade from Headlines Before It Fades from Markets
AI Needs More Than Chips, It Needs Power: The Infrastructure Bottleneck Investors Are Missing
Beyond the Barrel: The Second-Order Winners and Losers From Higher Oil
From Exchanges to Engines: Three Quiet Compounders Rewiring the Global Economy
The Middle East Build-Up, Two Weeks Later: What Investors Must Think About Now
Reset, Rebuild, Re-Rate: Why EML’s Next Chapter Could Surprise the Market
When investors think about an oil shock, the instinct is usually to look at the chart, watch Brent or WTI jump, and assume the story begins and ends there. Oil up, markets nervous, airlines down, energy stocks up, end of analysis. But that is rarely how the real world... There is a particular kind of market mistake that turns up again and again. A headline improves, the immediate fear recedes, oil gives back some of its panic move, equity futures bounce, and the collective temptation is to declare the danger over. We have just seen... For the past two years, markets have treated AI as a semiconductor story. And honestly, that made sense. Chips are tangible, exciting, and sit at the glamorous end of the value chain where margins are fat and every earnings beat feels like confirmation of a new... When oil prices spike, the market's first instinct is almost always the same. Buy energy producers. Sell airlines. Dust off the inflation playbook. Then pretend that understanding the direct effect is the same as understanding the whole story. It rarely is. The... A few weeks ago, in The Middle East Build-Up: What Investors Must Think About Now, we argued that investors did not need to predict war, they needed to prepare for its consequences. The core view was simple. If the US and Iran moved toward open conflict, oil would... There are periods in markets when everything feels orderly. Trends extend, volatility is contained, and investors begin to assume that tomorrow will look much like yesterday. Then there are periods of transition. 2026 feels like the latter. Not dramatic or... There is a persistent habit in markets of extrapolating yesterday’s winners indefinitely into tomorrow. For the better part of two decades, the United States has dominated capital formation, technology listings, consumer brands and financial innovation. It became... Over recent weeks investors have been overwhelmed by economic data that refuses to tell a coherent story. Growth appears acceptable, employment remains strong, hiring softens, wages rise, and confidence fluctuates. Depending on the framework applied, the same... Over the past fortnight global equity markets have experienced a sharp and synchronised pullback. This week has added an important nuance. After the initial aggressive selloff, markets have not collapsed further, instead they have begun to oscillate. Large intra-day...
The Second Order Effects of Oil: Inflation, Freight, Fertiliser, and the Next Growth Scare
Ceasefire, but not Closure: Why the Oil Shock May Fade from Headlines Before It Fades from Markets
AI Needs More Than Chips, It Needs Power: The Infrastructure Bottleneck Investors Are Missing
Beyond the Barrel: The Second-Order Winners and Losers From Higher Oil
The Middle East Build-Up, Two Weeks Later: What Investors Must Think About Now
A 2026 Global Equity Positioning Framework
When Capital Moves East: Exchanges, Airports and Baking Soda
The Data Feels Broken Because The Economy Is Changing
From the Desk of the CEO – When Markets Reprice Faster Than Fundamentals
When the Foundations Shift, Opportunity Emerges The global economy is standing on a precarious sandpile, one built from years of excess leverage, underpriced risk, and political complacency. With each new grain, be it a policy misstep, a rate shock, or a geopolitical... A new and insidious form of recession is brewing, not one born from financial system failure or natural market cycles, but from policy-driven paralysis. At its heart lies an erratic trade strategy, where punitive tariffs are wielded as a bargaining chip in... The past week has seen global markets whipsaw amid the latest U.S. tariff announcements, with Australian equities caught in the crosscurrents. Initially, global equities shed over $5.4 trillion in value following sweeping U.S. tariffs on imports, sending the S&P... The February reporting season presented one of the most dynamic market environments in recent memory. Earnings results triggered sharp movements, with investors swiftly adjusting their positions based on performance. This created significant shifts in valuations, with... In the wake of the recent U.S. election and Donald Trump's return to the White House, global market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic; however, there is widespread speculation regarding the potential impacts on international trade and diplomacy. While many... Introduction: A Timely Reminder from Howard Marks As Treasurer Jim Chalmers seeks to modernise the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with one of the most substantial reforms in decades, Howard Marks’ latest memo serves as a reminder of the dangers of interventionist... As investors, staying informed about economic indicators is crucial to making sound investment decisions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one such indicator, providing insights into the inflationary trends within the economy. Today, the Australian Bureau of... On 22 February 2024, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at ¥39,098.68, eclipsing the previous record high set in December 1989–a staggering 34 years ago. As we highlighted in a prior article, Japan went through a truly extraordinary boom in asset prices through the 1980s that... It’s a common investing belief that higher interest rates are a negative for stocks. As the world’s most famous investor Warren Buffett creatively described at the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) 2013 annual general meeting, “Interest rates are to asset prices, you...
Embracing the Chaos: Volatility, Sandpiles, and the Bold Path Forward
The Uncertainty Recession: When Policy Paralysis Threatens Real Growth
Tariffs and the ASX: What the U.S. Backflip Means for Investors
Capitalising on Market Cycles: Lessons from February’s Volatility
Could China’s Path to Stability be an Investor’s Opportunity?
Chalmers’ RBA Dilemma: Striking a Balance Between Reform and Free Market Principles
Understanding the Latest CPI Data: Is Inflation Moderating?
All Time Highs: Japan’s Revival
Insurance: A Rare Winner from Higher Interest Rates?
Investing in ASX Sectors
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Stay Informed with TAMIM Stock Insights
TAMIM Asset Management provides market and stock insights for general information to help you understand our investment approach. Any financial information we provide is not advice, has not considered your personal situation, and may not be suitable for you.