Markets & Commentary
2016
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Looking Forward to 2017 & Global Sector Outlook
The TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction IMA portfolio has managed to achieve impressive results since its inception. This week Robert Swift takes a look forward to 2017 and gives a sector outlook heading into the festive season. Read more... |
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Evidente: GDP Contraction Belies Underlying Strength in Economy
The recent decline in the real GDP quarterly numbers has caused concern on Australian economic growth, Evidente's Sam Ferraro believes we should be looking at nominal GDP numbers to see the real story. Read more... |
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Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets
In this article Nick takes time to delve into the factors he believes have driven emerging markets and the factors that will continue to drive them into 2017. While caution is always warranted when reviewing emerging markets, we continue to believe this segment of the market provides strong investment opportunities for the next 12 months. Read more... |
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Thailand: Referendum Results and Fiscal Policy Support Green Shoots
This week Nick Niziolek, of the TAMIM Global Equity Growth IMA investment manager Calamos Investments, continues to look at how economic reforms support investment opportunity in emerging markets, focusing this time on Thailand. Read more... |
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Can Smaller Companies Continue to Outperform?
One thing we hear people saying a lot when discussing the excellent recent performance of the TAMIM Australian Equity Small Cap IMA is that Small Caps have had their run and that there is no way that they will continue to outperform the broader market. This is not our opinion. The managers of the TAMIM Australian Equity Small Cap IMA outline a few reasons why they genuinely believe they can continue to outperform. Read more... |
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Evidente - The US Presidential Election - Key Lessons For Investors and Forecasters
Sam Ferraro of independent financial education firm Evidente, was a member of the advisory board of the fund underlying the TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction IMA, writes as a freelance journalist for The Age, Sydney Morning Herald and Australian Financial Review, and teaches business finance and international finance courses to undergraduates at RMIT. Read more... |
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TGEHC Travel Blog
The TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction IMA portfolio has managed to achieve impressive results since its inception. In fact, over one and three years, the underlying fund has outperformed the major Australian based international equity funds. Having just returned from a trip overseas, Karl Hunt shares his musings on Abu Dhabi and The Philippines. Read more... |
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Filtering Out The Noise
The team at DMX, managers of the TAMIM Australian Equity Small Cap IMA, have noticed a theme of extreme caution when it comes to investing in the markets emerging over the past few months. They take a look at a few of the reasons for this and why, while clearly worth considering, they shouldn't be freezing you and costing you through inactivity. Read more... |
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Indonesia: A Breadth of Reforms Provide Growth Tailwinds
This week Nick Niziolek, of the TAMIM Global Equity Growth IMA investment manager Calamos Investments, continues to look at how economic reforms support investment opportunity in emerging markets, focusing this time on the Indonesia. Read more... |
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Mitigating Risk in Small Cap Investing
The team at DMX, managers of the TAMIM Australian Equity Small Cap IMA, take a deeper look at the risks of managing a Small Cap portfolio and how to reduce the level of risk you are exposed to. Our conclusion is that, while broadly true, Small Caps aren't always as risky is their reputation suggests - you just have to know what to look for and what you're doing. Read more... |
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Economic Outlook Q4, 2016
As is customary, every quarter our partners on the TAMIM Global Equity Growth Individually Managed Account - Calamos Investments - publish their economic outlook. Read more... |
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Portfolio Diversification - What are you missing out on?
The TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction IMA portfolio has managed to achieve impressive results since its inception. In fact, over one and three years, the underlying fund has outperformed the major Australian based international equity funds. This week Robert Swift takes a look at why it makes sense to have global equity exposure in your investment portfolio. Read more... |
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Philippines: Increasing Economic Freedoms Set the Stage for Growth
This week Nick Niziolek, of the TAMIM Global Equity Growth IMA investment manager Calamos Investments, continues to look at how economic reforms support investment opportunity in emerging markets, focusing this time on the Philippines. Read more... |
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Succession Planning - Are You Ready?
Tim Budge, TAMIM Director of WA and SA, takes a look at the importance of succession planning with respect to your investment portfolio and ensuring that your family can comfortably assume the portfolio responsibilities when you are no longer able to. Read more... |
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Why Small Caps?
Investing in smaller companies has traditionally been a core strategy to achieving significant long term wealth generation for high net worth individuals, family offices, entrepreneurs, etc. And for good reason - we believe there are many compelling reasons to include smaller companies in all portfolios. In this article we investigate why smaller company investing can be so lucrative and the core strategies behind successful smaller company investing... Read more... |
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India: Tax Reform Paves the Way for Investment Opportunity
This week Nick Niziolek, of the TAMIM Global Equity Growth IMA investment manager Calamos Investments, reviews the impact tax reform will have on India as an investment market. Read more... |
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Evidente - The Dangers of Safety
Sam Ferraro of independent financial education firm Evidente, was a member of the advisory board of the fund underlying the TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction IMA, writes as a freelance journalist for The Age, Sydney Morning Herald and Australian Financial Review, and teaches business finance and international finance courses to undergraduates at RMIT. Read more... |
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Running the Numbers
This week Robert Swift, head of the TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction IMA, continues his series ‘Running the Numbers’. The series aims to share with you what our VMQ framework and research is telling us about those sectors and countries that are attractive across global equity markets. Read more... |
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Individually Managed Accounts vs. The Rest
Timothy Budge, TAMIM Director of WA and SA, takes a look at the pros, cons and differences between managed funds, Individually Managed Accounts and Separately Managed Accounts. Read more... |
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Global Market and Portfolio Review, July 2016
Robert Swift, head of the TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction Individually Managed Account (IMA), reviews both the market and his portfolio coming out of July. He also provides a brief outlook for global markets. We hope to reinforce the idea that portfolio management is more than simply “picking stocks". . Read more... |
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Investment Theme - US Infrastructure
This week Robert Swift, head of the TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction Individually Managed Account (IMA), examines the need for an increase in US infrastructure spending and the opportunities this presents. In this video, Robert takes a quick look at Vinci - a stock that should benefit from the coming spend. Read more... |
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Evidente - An Open Letter to CBA Chairman, Mr David Turner
Sam Ferraro of the independent financial consulting firm Evidente pens an open letter to the CBA Chairman, Mr David Turner. Sam is a member of the advisory board of API Capital, writes as a freelance journalist for The Age, Sydney Morning Herald and Australian Financial Review, and teaches business finance and international finance courses to undergraduates at RMIT. Read more... |
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Investing through Volatile Markets
This week Robert Swift, the Head of Global Equity Strategies of the TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction Individually Managed Account (IMA), talks about volatility and why it is an opportunity as much as a threat. We hope to reinforce the idea that portfolio management is more than simply “picking stocks’. Identifying mispriced stocks is a part of it but position sizing, measuring and identifying aggregate risk exposures, and knowing why and when to buy and sell are all part of it too. Read more... |
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Economic Outlook for the 3rd Quarter
Entering the second half of the year, market participants find themselves facing many familiar unknowns: whether the U.S. and global economies can maintain their muted pace of growth, the potential ramifications of a strong dollar, and the extent to which monetary policy can influence the markets. The political landscape remains a source of apprehension, as investors seek to understand the implications of Brexit and more broadly, global populist sentiment. Read more... |
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3 Key US Election Investment Thematics
Robert Swift, the Head of Global Equity Strategies of the TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction Individually Managed Account (IMA), discusses three key investment thematics that investors need to be aware of heading into this years US election. Read more... |
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Our 14 Steps to Value Investing
Value investing requires discipline and an ability to see through the noise so as to buy when others are fearful. With a good degree of self-awareness and an open mind we strongly believe it remains a superior investment strategy, and one which can lead to substantial outperformance. This article addresses our 14 steps to value investing as an introduction to this lucrative investment approach. Read more... |
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The Correlation Beauty of Microcaps
From a micro cap investors’ perspective, it means you can do the research on smaller companies knowing that if your investment case is correct, the stock price is likely to move dramatically in your favour as new information is digested and new investors are attracted to the stock. As long as you have an information advantage, the risk- reward equation is decidedly in your favour. Read more... |
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Low Liquidity - Friend or Foe
Smaller companies generally trade with lower liquidity than larger companies reflecting their smaller market following and large founder stakes. Contrary to popular opinion we view lower liquidity as core to the smaller company investment opportunity since smaller companies only trade at low liquidity levels when they are under-researched and undiscovered, and their valuations generally reflect this. This creates significant opportunities for investors who are prepared to find the high quality smaller companies trading at a significant discount to intrinsic fair value. Read more... |
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Three Global Thematic's to consider for your Portfolio
In this weeks video link Robert Swift, the Chief Investment Officer of the TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction Individually Managed Account (IMA) reviews the 3 key Global thematic risks he sees impacting the Global Equity High Conviction IMA. Firstly we touch on the impact of the British vote on Euro membership, he then discusses the US election and finally discusses the impact of a slowing Chinese economy. Read more... |
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Reflections: The Future of the EU
Evidente expects risk assets to trade on lower multiples, reflecting three developments: a reduction in expected dividend growth, a lift in uncertainty around future growth, and a higher risk premium. For investors with the luxury of a long investment horizon, Brexit ought to offer an invaluable buying opportunity. For most other institutional investors at the coal face of shorter term performance pressures, Evidente expects there will be better buying opportunities in due course. Read more... |
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Positioned for Brexit
Robert Swift talks about how the TAMIM Global Equity High Conviction IMA is positioned heading into the Brexit vote and in particular reviews our 3 London listed investments. Read more... |
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Investment Theme - Health and Longevity Trends
Many people are aware that aging populations in developed markets (most notably in Japan and the United States) are driving increased demand for health care services and innovations. What’s likely less well known is that related demographic trends are afoot in a number of emerging markets. Read more... |
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Global Markets Review June 2016
Jonathan Pain, of the Pain Report, is an independent market commentator and as he will often tell us a self professed market statistics junkie. This month Jonathan, takes time out to provide us with an overview of the key global issues including the upcoming June 23rd Brexit vote. In this video, Jonathan also takes time to talk to us about the record low and negative global interest rates we are currently experiencing. Read more... |
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Made in China
Infrastructure build-out is one of the key themes driving long-term growth opportunities, especially in emerging markets. We’re seeing a range of government initiatives to promote infrastructure spending, including in Indonesia, India, and the Philippines. However, the single most important of the infrastructure initiatives underway is likely China’s One Belt, One Road project (OBOR). Read more... |
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The Pain Report - What a miss on US Jobs
And there I was thinking that all I had to write about this morning was that ‘sizzling’ Australian GDP report. Then along comes the ‘mother of all statistics’ the US non-farm payroll report. And oh my goodness we got an absolute shocker. Now I’m a self-confessed data and market junkie. I actually do look at ALL the data, that’s what I do. Read more... |
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Where has all the debt gone?
Does the world still have a problem with debt? The common conviction among investors is that “too much debt” is why we face a future of secular stagnation. And yet, seven years after the Great Financial Crisis, is it time to move on from these fears? Read more... |
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What To Look For In A Company Before Buying It
Rather than add to the masses of information on what constitutes a ‘high quality company’, James Williamson picks out a few qualities that have proved to underpin successful investments during his career. When going through these qualities, it is a good idea to constantly remind yourself of the importance of the price you are paying for an investment. As Howard Marks says, “Everything is AAA at the right price”. Read more... |
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Is Everyone Overpaying for Safety Stocks?
This week our Global Equity Growth Portfolio investment manager Calamos Investments, reviews the equity market and the sectors that are believed to be safe havens. Are we placing false hope in our belief that we are being conservative in our investment strategies? Read more... |
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Evidente - Home truths about housing affordability
Evidente has previously suggested that if there was a bubble in Australia's residential property markets, it might well persist for quite a bit longer due to an extended period of low interest rates and concluded that hedge funds seeking to capitalise on Australia's 'big short' would need an abundance of patience (and capital). The analysis here confirms there is no crisis in housing affordability and that the 'big short' is a myth. Read more... |
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The Case for Global Equities Today
Since late 2014, our Global Equity Growth Portfolio investment manager Calamos Investments, has held a positive view on core European and Japanese equity markets, while taking a selective approach in regard to emerging market equities. This served well in 2015, as did our exposure in reflationary and weak currency beneficiaries. Read more... |
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China as a major Economic Powerhouse
In part 2 of our series on China we discuss the currency, the internet and the One Belt, One Road initiative in China. This is a stimulus project that’s been underway for several years in China, parts of which should be completed in 2017. What it’s essentially doing is creating a railway and a road network from the East Coast of China all the way to Europe so that they can transport goods in approximately four days as opposed to the current route which is roughly 40 days by seabound travel. Read more... |
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Consumption and Industry in China
China is a topic that we’ve talked about a lot over the last few years and typically that has been the emerging markets story. It’s a very complicated situation. At a high level, our thesis remains that this is an economy that is transitioning from more of an investment-led, investment-driven economy to more of a balanced economy with more consumption driving growth. Read more... |
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The Pain Report
Even thought we have had a interest rate cut and a dividend cut by one of the big 4 banks, Jonathan still believes the momentum remains upward for the Australian banks. Having said all of that he still believes that the currency offers a better return trade off in the shorter term. Read more... |
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Running the numbers
‘Running the Numbers’ aims to share with you what our VMQ Ranking framework and research is telling us about those sectors and countries that are attractive across global equity markets. We have recently moved our portfolio focus to be more exposed to Value stocks as a result of the volatile markets and the resultant opportunities we are finding in stocks prices that have been beaten up. Read more... |
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Evidente - will someone pass the Panadol to Mr Stevens please
The CPI print revealed that disinflationary forces intensified in the March quarter. Underlying inflation (which Evidente calculates as the average of the weighted median and trimmed mean estimates) posted a quarterly rise of only 0.18%, the smallest increase since the inception of the series in 1982. As a result, underlying inflation rose by only 1.5% in the past four quarters, which also represents the smallest annual increase on record Read more... |
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Q2 2016 Global Review and Outlook
Our Global Equity Growth Portfolio investment manager Calamos Investments, publishes a Global Economic Review and Outlook on a quarterly basis. This quarter they review the volatility of markets in the last quarter and pick the sectors that they believe will benefit for the remainder of the year. If you need some help deciphering these strange volatile markets then please read on. Read more... |
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The Pain Report
With the analysis of the Pain report pointing to a significant decline in overall housing prices in Australia, Jonathan asks the question about the sustainability of the dividend streams currently being paid by the Australian banks... Read more... |
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Watching Stock Prices
According to our Global Growth Portfolio investment manager Calamos Investments, watching stock prices is not always the best way to assess the US economy. The American economist Paul Samuelson famously noted that the stock market has “predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.” With the major equity indices suffering peak-to-trough declines of nearly 20% from last summer through February, how should investors consider the latest bear move in the context of what is known about the economy? Read more... |
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In the Spotlight: TAMIM Australian Equity Value IMA
In this week’s investment report we take a moment to inform our readers of the top performing portfolio on TAMIM’s investment platform over the last 12 months; The TAMIM Australian Equity Value (TAEV) portfolio. The underlying fund, which is headed by James Williamson, has achieved a return after fees for investors of 18.3% over the last year, compared to a return of the ASX 300 of negative -9.2%. Read more... |
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Start of the next Bull Market or just a Bear Market rally?
Most major bottoms in equities start in such a fashion that the upturn in corporate fundamentals is rarely visible at turning points. To be fair, there has been progress on many issues that unsettled investors in January including greater clarity regarding euro zone monetary policy, Chinese currency stability and the Fed’s pace of future rate hikes. So is this the start of a Bull Market or just a Bear Market rally? Read more... |
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Secular Themes - Emerging markets
Secular themes are key drivers of investment decisions and quite often will be the distinction between those companies that are successful and those that are left behind. In this video Todd Speed from Calamos Investments discusses our views on emerging market thematics such as the growth in auto demand with the growth of the middle class. Read more... |
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Evidente - light at the end of the tunnel for the US
In a post from December 2015, Evidente drew on comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, suggesting that the normalisation of the federal funds rate was likely to follow a more gradual and shallower path than past tightening cycles. Overnight, Federal Reserve Chair, Ms Janet Yellen re-iterated that the new normal for policy normalisation would be low and slow, based on growing evidence that the neutral rate of interest was around zero; the level of the federal funds rate that is consistent with output growing close to its potential rate with full employment and stable inflation. Read more... |
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The Pain Report - notes from my red book
I have a large red book in which I write all my notes, observations et al for my weekly commentary. This week, just the highlights went for pages. You can see why I started a weekly commentary, as there is so much to talk about. Probably best to start with the ‘Mother of them all’, the S&P 500. We’ll then take a look at the data which got us where we are. Because the market is still ‘data dependent’, even if the FED isn’t. Read more... |
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Global Growth Thematics for the second quarter of 2016
The TAMIM Global Equity Growth IMA partner, Calamos Investments pairs comprehensive bottom up fundamental research with an understanding of the top-down forces that are likely to shape the investment landscape going forward in their investment process. The top-down process includes understanding short- and longer-term macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and other forces that will shape the business and investment climates. Read more... |
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Notes from our recent trip to Japan
The Calamos Global Equity team regularly visits the countries in which we invest. We meet with company management teams, local analysts, industry professionals and government officials and visit facilities. We also seek out ways to understand a country hands-on, including through conversations with people from all walks of life. We recently returned from a two-week trip to Japan... Read more... |
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The Google Car
The TAMIM investment team is always diligently researching, reading and scouring the internet for information and ideas that will shape our investing future. While we have been discussing the driverless car and transportation automation with our partners at KIS capital, our managing director Darren Katz found it extremely interesting to watch the below demonstration by Google of their driverless car. Read more... |
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Monday Morning Pain - A new beginning
Jonathan has decided that he will be publishing his weekend comments on a Monday morning to get your week off to a powerful start. In today's commentary nobody escapes unscathed. For those of us watching global and local economic events unfold this is a great read to get your week off to a thoughtful start. Read more... |
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The Weekly Pain Report - The trend is your friend, until it isn't
Markets have certainly reversed their direction over the past 2 weeks. This is not the kind of market to set and forget your positions in. This week JP talks the Aussie housing market and Donald Trump amongst other items. Read more... |
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The 2015 Berkshire Hathaway Letter
This week saw the release of the 2015 Berkshire Hathaway Annual letter. This is always a must read for investors and the team at Tamim has enjoyed the read. We have produced it in full for your convenience. Read more... |
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The Weekly Pain Report - Where do I begin?
This week Jonathan has a look at the G20 meeting and asks questions of the centrals banks ability to extract us from our current debt bubble. For those of us managing our own portfolio's or trying to figure out the investment environment, this is a must read. Read more... |
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The VMQ Ranking System
In recent times we have received an overwhelming amount of interest from investors wanting to know how the Tamim Global Equity High Conviction IMA has managed to achieve such impressive results. In fact, over one and three years, the underlying fund has outperformed the major Australian based international funds. Read more... |
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The Weekly Pain Report - It is different this time
This week we had the pleasure of a visit from Jonathan to the Tamim offices. As usual it was a pleasure to talk to a man that is in my opinion one of the finest strategic investment thinkers I have listened to. This week Jonathan runs through what he is seeing happening in global markets and highlights that this time it is indeed different. Read more... |
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The Weekly Pain Report
Over the next few weeks my good friend and highly skilled investment strategist Jonathan Pain has agreed to share his views on what he is seeing in global investment markets with readers of the TAMIM weekly newsletter. The only thing better then reading a Pain report is listening to Jonathan present. Enjoy the reading. Read more... |
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The “Fasten Seatbelt” Sign Has Been Turned On
“Ladies and gentlemen, the captain has now turned on the seatbelt sign. Please return to your seats and fasten your seatbelts.” When we’re passengers, turbulence often catches us by surprise; it may even evoke fear and anxiety. The pilots and frequent flyers are usually more sanguine. They understand that more often than not, turbulence isn’t dangerous and only rarely requires a significant divergence or emergency landing. Instead, they stay focused on the task at hand, adjusting the flight path to make the plane more comfortable while relying on their well-tested systems and procedures to mitigate discomfort and risk. Read more... |
7 surprises in 2016
As we head into 2016, the team at Tamim thought we should put our heads together and come up with 7 strange yet quite plausible scenarios that the world could encounter through the next 12 months. Robert Swift, head of Tamim’s Global Equity Strategies puts the following 7 not so outlandish idea’s forward…
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As we head into 2016, the team at Tamim thought we should put our heads together and come up with 7 strange yet quite plausible scenarios that the world could encounter through the next 12 months. Robert Swift, head of Tamim’s Global Equity Strategies puts the following 7 not so outlandish idea’s forward…
Read more...